A €1.15 Billion Market Takes Shape

Germany’s medical cannabis sector is entering a new phase, with the market expected to generate approximately €1.15 billion in revenue in 2026. While regulation remains an important factor, the market is increasingly being shaped by patient access, private spending, product availability and competition between suppliers.

The latest analysis from Prohibition Partners and Business of Cannabis highlights how dramatically Germany has changed since the Medical Cannabis Act came into effect in April 2024. Prescription volumes have surged by more than 3,300% since the regulatory shift, while the number of available cannabis products has expanded significantly.

Private Patients Drive the Market

One of the most striking developments is the growing importance of patients who pay privately for their prescriptions.

Despite Germany’s statutory health insurance system covering roughly 90% of the population, private-pay patients now represent the majority of market value. This has created a business environment increasingly driven by direct patient demand rather than traditional healthcare reimbursement.

For cannabis companies, this shift creates both opportunities and challenges. The ability to reach patients efficiently, provide reliable products and maintain competitive pricing is becoming increasingly important.

Rising Imports, Falling Prices

Rapid market growth has also created pressure on the supply side.

Germany has significantly increased its imports of medical cannabis, with Canada remaining one of the country’s most important international suppliers. At the same time, the number of available flower products has expanded considerably.

More suppliers and more product choices have intensified competition, contributing to lower wholesale and retail prices. For producers and distributors, simply increasing sales volumes may therefore no longer guarantee stronger margins.

Quality Could Become a Competitive Advantage

As the market becomes more competitive, product differentiation is likely to become increasingly important.

Reliable supply, consistent cannabinoid profiles and pharmaceutical-grade production can give suppliers an advantage over competitors competing primarily on price.

This could create an interesting divide within the German market: lower-cost products may attract price-sensitive patients, while premium products with consistent quality could continue to command stronger margins.

Access Remains Critical

Germany’s rapid growth has also demonstrated how important patient access is to the development of the cannabis market.

Telemedicine has played a major role in expanding access to medical cannabis, allowing patients to obtain consultations and prescriptions without relying entirely on traditional healthcare pathways.

Any future restrictions affecting remote consultations, prescriptions or distribution could therefore have a meaningful impact on market growth.

Lessons From Across Europe

Germany’s development is part of a broader European transformation.

Poland has shown that patient demand can recover after regulatory restrictions when alternative access models become available. Switzerland, meanwhile, is providing valuable evidence from its adult-use pilot programmes, where regulated access has reportedly reduced participants’ reliance on the illicit market.

These examples demonstrate that successful cannabis markets depend not only on legislation, but also on practical access for consumers and patients.

The Next Stage of European Cannabis

Europe’s cannabis industry appears to be moving beyond its initial period of regulatory experimentation. The next phase is likely to focus increasingly on execution.

Companies will need to balance supply, pricing, product quality, patient acquisition and regulatory risk while operating in markets that are becoming increasingly competitive.

For Germany, the outlook remains particularly significant. Prohibition Partners’ forecasts point towards continued growth, with the market potentially reaching €1.5 billion or more over the coming years.

Germany could therefore become more than Europe’s largest medical cannabis market. It may also become a blueprint for how a mature, patient-driven cannabis industry develops when healthcare, regulation and commercial demand begin to converge.

Sources

Business of Cannabis & Prohibition Partners, European Cannabis Insights 2026, August 2026.

Prohibition Partners & Business of Cannabis, The German Cannabis Market Report 2026 — Official report page